Impact of Climate Change:
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Over 800 colleges and universities, K-12 schools, civic organizations and religious groups are participating in Focus the Nation, potentially the largest simultaneous teach-in in history. (READ MORE) |
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"Hurricanes
Have Doubled Due to Global Warming, Study Says" |
[National Geographic News,
July 30, 2007
about Holland & Webster's latest study] |
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| News: "Study
links more hurricanes, climate change" |
| By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY (August 20, 2007) |
| The number of hurricanes
that develop each year has more than doubled over the past century,
an increase tied to global warming, according to a study released
Sunday. |
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| Study: Greg
J. Holland and Peter J. Webster, "Heightened Tropical
Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability
or Climate Trend?", Philosophical Transactions of the
Royal Society of London, July 30, 2007 [PDF] |
| We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and
hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic
Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated
by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones
and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with
a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial
100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.78C in
SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers.
It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical
cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by
greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone
and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation
manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become
major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable
net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations
in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane
developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the
climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity
during 1945–1964 is consistent with a peak period in major
hurricane proportions. (Abstract) |
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| National Hurricane Center Homepage |
| http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ |
| The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a component of the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located
at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. The
NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and
improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches,
warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather,
and by increasing understanding of these hazards. (website
description) |
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Forecast |
| Forecast for 2007 season: Severe Atlantic hurricane season expected; tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean |
| A severe Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2007, according to the May 31 seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) today. The Gray/Klotzbach team is calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes--unchanged from their April forecast. An average season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The forecast calls for a much above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is normal) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an above normal risk of a major hurricane. |
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| Tropical Storm Risk: 2007 Forecast |
| http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/ |
| The British private forecasting firm, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), offers a leading resource for forecasting the risk from tropical storms worldwide. The venture provides information and innovative forecast products to benefit risk awareness and decision making in (re)insurance, other business sectors,
government and society. |
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| The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU): 2007 Forecast |
| http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2007/june2007/ |
| The Tropical Meteorology Project is headed by Colorado State University's Dr. William Gray. Professor Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years. Most of this effort has gone to the investigation of meso-scale tropical weather phenomena. He has specialized in the global aspects of tropical cyclones for his entire professional career. |
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| What's In Store For New York's Future? |
| http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html |
| 21% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2007. Normal value is 16%.
15% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in 2007. Normal value is 9%.
6% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2007. Normal value is 4%. |
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Multimedia |
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| Hurricane Katrina Progression
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| http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003200/a003224/a003224_320x240.mpg |
| Hurricane Katrina progression is observed by the Aqua and Terra satellites. Katrina hit land on August 29, 2005, near the Louisiana-Mississippi border. Katrina's center was located near the mouth of the Pearl River about 40-45 miles west-southwest of Biloxi, Mississippi and about 30-35 miles east-northeast of New Orleans, Louisiana. Katrina is the eleventh named storm of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season. |
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| Katrina’s flood maps
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| http://www.katrina.noaa.gov/maps/maps.html |
| NOAA flooding estimated depth and extent maps for New Orleans show how flood waters penetrated the city following Hurricane Katrina. Other maps show the extent of coastal flooding and known spills following the storm. |
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| National Hurricane Center Homepage |
| http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ |
| The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. (website description) |
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Estatistical Data, Surveys, Maps, and Reports |
| U.S. Geological Survey
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| http://www.usgs.gov/hazards/hurricanes/kat_rit_wil/ |
| As the Nation's largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. Information is provided about coastal impacts of Katrina, Rita, and Wilma and Satellite Imagery and other Geospatial Data, News Releases, Streamflow Conditions, publications and other resources. |
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| National Climatic Data Center |
| http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/hurricanes05.html#sum |
| Climate of 2005: Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary from the National Climatic Data Center website. The Center serves the Nation as a national resource for climate information developing both national and global data sets that have been used by both government and the private sector to maximize the resource provided by our climate and minimize the risks of climate variability and weather extremes. The Center has a statutory mission to describe the climate of the United States and NCDC acts as the Nation's Scorekeeper regarding the trends and anomalies of weather and climate. |
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| US Census Bureau
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| http://www.census.gov/econ/www/hurricane/maps/ |
| Areas Affected by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma Businesses and Employment: Maps and Tables. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma had significant impact along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. While many businesses were in the path of these storms, some were affected and others were not. Knowing where affected businesses are concentrated can guide efforts by Federal, State, and local agencies, service organizations, and entrepreneurs to respond to the storms and rebuild the economies of these areas. |
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| Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies |
| http://wxmaps.org/ |
| Weather and Climate Data maps website from COLA, a scientific research center established to improve understanding and prediction of Earth's climate variations and to share both the fruits of this research and the tools necessary to carry out this research with society as a whole. Includes maps of the potential minimum central pressure and potential maximum winds for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, predictors of hurricanes. |
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| Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) |
| http://www.epa.gov/enviro/katrina/emkatrina.html |
| EnviroMapper for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Test results from flood water, sediment from flood water, surface water, soil, and time-delayed air sampling in the areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are available in the Enviromapper tool. Enviromapper combines interactive maps and aerial photography to geographically display the sampling locations and analysis results. |
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Books |
Drawing
Louisiana's
new map: Addressing land loss in coastal
Louisiana. Committee on the
Restoration and Protection of Coastal Louisiana, Ocean Studies Board, Division
on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies. (2006)
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